The premises of Condorcet’s jury theorem are not simultaneously justified.” Episteme 5

Condorcets famous jury theorem reaches an optimistic conclusion on the correctness of majority decisions, based on two controversial premises about voters: they are competent and vote independently, in a technical sense. I carefully analyse these premises and show that: (i) whether a premise is justi\u85ed depends on the notion of probability considered; (ii) none of the notions renders both premises simultaneously justi\u85ed. Under the perhaps most interesting notions, the independence assumption should be weakened.